The new guidelines by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an influential panel of independent experts, would sharply curtail the number of breast mammograms done in the U.S., sparing women the worry of false alarms and the cost and trouble of extra tests. 

. . . The guidelines, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, are based largely on computer projections from six independent research groups in the U.S. and Europe. They predicted that screening women 50 to 69 every other year will catch nearly as many breast cancers -- 81 percent -- while producing half as many false positive results.

The group's last recommendations in 2002 called for routine mammograms every one to two years for all women older than 40. Now, they recommend no routine screening for women in their 40s, and instead suggest these women decide themselves when to start after weighing the risks and benefits.

. . . The panel said there is not enough evidence to say women over 74 benefit from mammograms because at that age, screening may be detecting cancers that will not ever kill a woman. The guidelines also say there is not enough evidence to prove that women benefit from self breast exams, or even if they help if doctors do them.

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